Proper Analysis = Proper Thought

Why the deep dive into proper analysis

By Mitchell Vexler, December 30, 2025

Part I

Why the deep dive into proper analysis? Gold, Silver, and the connection to debt.

Ignore comments that are not backed up with mathematical probabilities.

No Hype. (Don’t fall for the hype.)

Who is creating the volatility and for what purpose?

Possible:

World silver production: ~800M ounces

Probable:

Demand seems to be outstripping supply. Industrial + FOMO (fear of missing out)

Paper chasing paper (short without the ability to purchase the physical & short paper contracts not backed by physical) which is leverage upon leverage and then add the 3^rd party counter risk which is more leverage upon leverage.

X Banks were short gold and silver contracts. There is no way to know specifically because the damage on silver was done within the last 20 days and such data does not appear on the income/expense statements or balance sheets of the publicly traded banks and may be considered off balance sheet especially with regard to the 3^rd party counter risk.

Is it just the bank or the 3^rd party credit / counter risk such as CDS, Re-Insurers, & participant banks that they are trying to protect?

Who? Does the Fed even know who they are? 

What you’re looking at isn't just a large short position.

The notional value of gold futures is calculated by multiplying the contract size, which is typically 100 troy ounces, by the current market price of gold. For example, if gold is trading at $4,383 per ounce, the notional value of one gold futures contract would be $438,000 (100 ounces x $4,383).

Margin Cost is $X depending on volatility. Supply issues add complexity for which brokers will not take the risk thus increasing the margin in excess of 1%.

Leverage is Margin divided by Notional $Gold Value divided by 100 Troy Ounces.

Currently physical is hard to source and slow to deliver.

The damage of those who participated in the shorts may be irretrievable, but for the Federal Reserve stepping in to stop a vortex of participants stemming from the banks to the 3^rd party counter risk from imploding due to bad positions. Should the Fed step in? NO! Will the Fed step in on behalf of the U.S. Treasury? Probably. Eventually the truth will surface.

Global silver production is effectively capped at 800M ounces per year.

The paper chasing paper ounces short is TBD. We don’t know and we don’t have access to such data including the Commitment of Traders.

Whatever the shortage of paper chasing paper in the participant bullion banks i.e. 4.4 BILLION ounces to cover these positions (308 Billion Notional as of today), these banks would need to contract purchase every single ounce of silver mined out of the ground for the next 5.5 years never mind what real demand and use exists today for the Silver i.e. Solar, Batteries, & EV, which takes up 60% of the existing production. In other words, the existing physical demand is just a very small component of the paper chasing paper and that paper chasing paper is the crux of the problem. It was never real to begin with.

The "free float" of investment-grade silver is tiny.

How is this even allowed? It’s called unallocated accounts and rehypothecation.

The bullion banks have likely leased the same physical bar of silver to 10, 20, maybe 50 different clients.  HMMM does this not sound like Tricolor the auto company that had multiple bank loans on one car?!!!!!!!!

This is not a Hunt Brothers moment in 1980s. They were trying to corner the market by buying physical.

This maybe institutional naked shorting on a scale that defies coverage, meaning the physical does not exist to cover their extraordinarily levered paper chasing paper. (No gold or silver is physically backing up the paper.)

This is not a "Force Majeure" (act of God) event. This is 100% purely manmade greed and manipulation on steroids.

Will the LBMA (London Bullion Market Association) survive? TBD

Is there a need for a clearing house to clear paper chasing paper in Metals. No. A clearing house for cash settlement is necessary.

IF YOU DON’T HOLD IT, YOU DON’T OWN IT.

I understand Critical Minerals but if you prohibit the export of silver and silver is currency, then how is banning the export of any precious metal not currency control? 

Part II

What are the issues and volatility shown in my spreadsheets telling us?

See the Daniela Cambone video, The $23 Trillion Property Scam That Will Bankrupt America – Vexler.

Link to video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uY5EpJl5fUo.

The current system of school district bond issuance in Texas bears a striking resemblance to the "MEO" bills and economic fraud of the 1930s Germany regime.

Both systems rely on artificial value creation to sustain government spending that the real economy cannot afford. Here is how they match:

1. Artificial "Value" to Back Debt

 * MEO Bills: The German regime created "MEO" bills—promissory notes with no real gold or currency backing—to fund massive military rearmament. They essentially invented "money" out of thin air to pay for projects they couldn't afford [00:52].

 * Texas school boards use "Appraisal Fraud" which creates fraudulent School District Bonds, which accomplishes the exact same thing of creating false value, no different than the German regime. By artificially inflating property values (sometimes by 30% or more in a single year despite low inflation), school districts create a higher "tax base" on paper [00:10]. This higher paper value allows them to issue massive new bonds that the actual incomes of the residents cannot support [13:42].

Just like the paper chasing paper in the Silver market, the majority of the paper has no value as its ability to made good based on physical does not exist meaning extreme over leverage not backed by assets.

2. The "Ticking Clock" of Debt

 * MEO Bills: By 1939, billions in MEO bills were coming due. Germany had no real money to pay them, making conquest and the seizure of foreign resources the only way to avoid domestic collapse [08:06].

 * Texas School Bonds: School districts are issuing new bonds just to pay the interest on old bonds [11:19].

This creates a "Ponzi scheme" dynamic where the debt grows exponentially. Godley, Texas, where the bond debt per household is roughly $120,000, while the average home value is only $160,000 — meaning the debt is nearly equal to the total asset value [13:34].

3. Concealment and "Noble Causes"

 * MEO Bills: These were hidden from the public and international observers to maintain the illusion of an "economic miracle" while secretly preparing for war [00:52].

 * Texas School Bonds: The point being that "the noblest causes" (doing it "for the children") are used as propaganda to mask what I have shown as "accounting fraud" and "bond fraud" [11:52]. The school superintendents and chief appraisers work together to set predetermined budgets and then manipulate "effective age" and property cards to meet those numbers [08:00].

4. The Threat of "Total Collapse"

 * Comparison: Just as the MEO bill fraud made WWII an "inevitable necessity" to avoid German bankruptcy, Vexler warns that the $5.1 trillion in fraudulent bond debt nationwide is a "ticking time bomb" [25:11].

If the "controlled demolition" of this system (repealing property taxes) doesn't happen, it will lead to a "crisis of confidence" and a financial crash far worse than the 2008 housing bubble [33:10].

Key Stats:

 * We estimate that 21.25 trillion dollars of property overvaluation has occurred in the last five years alone [04:52] from which over $450 Billion in over taxation, money being stolen from the houses has occurred in 2024.

 * In some Texas districts, taxpayers are on the hook for repayments that are many times the original amount borrowed [15:46].

As a further example European Union, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Germany, Minneapolis Minnesota, Conroe Texas, all did exactly what the MEO bills did in Germany which is to create money / debt which is the cause of the problem (fraudulent bonds) that leads to both Institutionalized Systemic Moral Hazard, and the symptoms of property tax lien foreclosures, bankruptcy and or losing the roof over their head for roughly 37.8% of the household population being approximately 42,000,000 households and in the case of the Countries mentioned… they march toward war to cover up their fraud, just like Germany did in 1939.

The School Boards use inflated appraisals and equity strip property owners in terms of paying down their mortgage, and place future debts upon the property owners from which there is no revenue to be obtained to continue the fraud, making property owners economic slaves to the debt created by criminals (RICO).

No school district should ever be allowed access to the bond market and use property values from which to gain tax revenue.

The school district’s credit card must be cancelled.

Perpetual tax debt = debt slavery.

Institutionalized Systemic Moral Hazard ends when the school districts no longer have access to property valuation fraud by the Central Appraisal Districts.

Repeal all property tax in favor of the Uniform States Sales Tax. See Benefits of repealing property tax on my website.

They stole your money to transfer that wealth to those who did not earn it and that is the definition of socialism. 

Socialism ends when you run out of other people’s money and that is now because the Median Household Income does not exist to pay for the fraudulent debt.

Demand from your politicians the termination of the school district’s credit card.

Massive Property Tax Fraud Exposed - $5.1 Trillion Bond Scam – www.mockingbirdproperties.com/dcad

What have we learned. There is a direct correlation to the property tax fraud, silver scam and printing of money via the U.S. Treasury & the Federal Reserve. The nexus is the creation of false value being fraudulent property valuation from which to steal tax revenue, fraudulent paper chasing paper from which there is no physical to back up the paper, and fraudulent printing of money causing inflation which is a hidden tax.

This is the reason why every person watching this video, SILVER BAN BEGINS – Prices COLLAPSE, must be active to make the politicians aware and then push them into admitting the necessity of controlled demolition before the politicians push the world into meaningless and unnecessary wars.

Your life and your children’s lives depend on your involvement.